OPERATION-BROKEN-FANG
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$5.20
Advertised RTP
93.49%
EV $4.86 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.32%
53 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 53 openings and 9.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/operation-broken-fang/info, 11 Nov, 20:24 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $5.20 | 93.49% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $5.20 | 91.86% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $5.20 | 91.98% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $5.20 | 92.21% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $5.20 | 94.46% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $5.20 | 91.59% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $5.20 | 92.04% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $5.20 | 93.02% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $5.20 | 93.40% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $5.20 | 92.68% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 2.4%covert 1.3%classified 1.6%#4b69ff 4.6%milspec 5.6%pink 0.6%consumer 4.6%Classified 0.4%blue 0.4%Mil Spec Grade 4.5%restricted 18.3%violet 0.5%Restricted 9.7%#777777 4.2%Common 4.2%Consumer Grade 8.7%#8847ff 8.9%Rare 7.7%industrial 9.2%Mil Spec 2.8%best hit —