RACK

A case on DROP.SKIN (gun_room), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price
$2.75
Advertised RTP
114.82%
EV $3.16 from 150 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.78%
1,329 openings, odds method
Variance
20.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
80.35%±77.67134 openings
7 days
85.05%±25.101,243 openings
30 days
84.78%±24.281,329 openings
since tracking started
84.78%±24.281,329 openings
2.0%80.3%158.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 113.60% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (60.51% – 109.06%, 1,329 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h13480.35%±77.7−0.9σodds
7d1,24385.05%±25.1−2.2σodds
30d1,32984.78%±24.3−2.3σodds
All1,32984.78%±24.3−2.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values150 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,329 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 51,813$9080.6%00.0—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 40,984$7170.6%00.0—
★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 40,161$7020.6%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 32,787$5740.6%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 28,490$4990.6%00.0—
★ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 22,883$4010.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 19,194$3360.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 18,657$3270.6%00.1—
★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 17,953$3150.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 16,949$2970.6%00.1—
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 14,225$2490.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 13,908$2440.6%00.1—
Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted1 in 11,099$1940.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 9,980$1750.6%00.1—
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 9,074$1590.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 8,688$1520.6%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Night Stripe (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 8,518$1490.6%00.2—
Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert1 in 8,123$1420.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,752$1360.6%00.2—
★ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 7,645$1340.6%00.2—
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 7,452$1310.6%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 6,897$1210.6%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 6,414$1120.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,734$1000.6%00.2—
★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 4,973$87.100.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 4,572$80.090.6%00.3—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 4,462$78.150.6%00.3—
Souvenir P90 | ScaraB Rush (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted1 in 4,288$75.120.6%00.3—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 4,163$72.920.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 4,122$72.190.6%00.3—
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert1 in 3,602$63.090.6%00.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 3,423$59.980.6%00.4—
Souvenir P250 | Digital Architect (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted1 in 3,157$55.290.6%00.4—
Galil AR | Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 3,045$53.340.6%00.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Electric Hive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 3,043$53.310.6%00.4—
★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 2,924$51.210.6%00.5—
StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,845$49.830.6%00.5—
Glock-18 | Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,811$49.230.6%00.5—
★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 2,508$43.920.6%00.5—
★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd7001 in 2,492$43.650.6%00.5—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,484$43.520.6%00.5—
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 2,282$39.970.6%00.6—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 2,154$37.730.6%00.6—
M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 2,061$36.090.6%00.6—
StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,998$34.990.6%00.7—
SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 1,854$32.480.6%00.7—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,837$32.170.6%00.7—
Souvenir MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 1,724$30.200.6%00.8—
Souvenir AK-47 | Safety Net (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted1 in 1,686$29.530.6%00.8—
Souvenir G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 1,654$28.970.6%00.8—
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 1,639$28.720.6%00.8—
StatTrak™ Negev | Bratatat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 1,592$27.880.6%00.8—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,586$27.790.6%00.8—
Souvenir G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 1,365$23.910.6%21.0—
Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 1,298$22.730.6%11.00.98×
Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 1,238$21.690.6%11.10.93×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,096$19.190.6%01.20.00×
Souvenir SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec1 in 1,035$18.140.6%01.30.00×
Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 1,031$18.050.6%11.30.78×
Souvenir Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 1,028$18.000.6%21.31.55×
SG 553 | Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,020$17.870.6%11.30.77×
Nova | Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 970$17.000.6%01.40.00×
P2000 | Turf (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 957$16.770.6%51.43.60×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 907$15.890.6%21.51.36×
M249 | Shipping Forecast (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 888$15.550.6%11.50.67×
MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 882$15.450.6%21.51.33×
P250 | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 859$15.050.6%31.51.94×
Souvenir P90 | Schematic (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 803$14.060.6%31.71.81×
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 1,190$13.240.4%31.12.69×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 1,186$13.170.4%01.10.00×
PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,180$13.050.4%01.10.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink1 in 1,176$12.980.3%11.10.88×
P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,132$12.170.3%21.21.70×
Souvenir AUG | Random Access (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 1,112$11.820.3%21.21.67×
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 1,087$11.390.3%21.21.64×
AUG | Colony (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 1,017$10.190.3%11.30.77×
StatTrak™ AUG | Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 997$9.850.3%11.30.75×
Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 993$9.790.3%21.31.49×
Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 964$9.310.3%01.40.00×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 941$8.940.3%21.41.42×
Souvenir P90 | Schematic (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 841$7.420.3%41.62.53×
Souvenir Nova | Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted1 in 839$7.390.3%11.60.63×
FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 818$7.090.3%11.60.62×
Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 818$7.080.3%21.61.23×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 785$6.620.3%21.71.18×
MP9 | Rose Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 777$6.510.3%11.70.59×
StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 751$6.150.3%11.80.57×
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 744$6.060.3%11.80.56×
XM1014 | Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 743$6.030.3%21.81.12×
Souvenir P90 | ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted1 in 735$5.930.3%41.82.21×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 680$5.200.2%02.00.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 672$5.110.2%22.01.01×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 668$5.050.2%32.01.51×
FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 661$4.960.2%42.01.99×
Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 655$4.890.2%22.00.99×
P2000 | Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue1 in 640$4.700.2%72.13.37×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 624$4.510.2%22.10.94×
Souvenir Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 623$4.500.2%22.10.94×
XM1014 | XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 596$4.180.2%72.23.14×
AK-47 | Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 581$4.000.2%12.30.44×
StatTrak™ AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 565$3.830.2%22.40.85×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 555$3.720.2%42.41.67×
MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 537$3.520.2%12.50.40×
StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 530$3.440.2%22.50.80×
G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 529$3.430.2%52.51.99×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Last Dive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 518$3.310.2%32.61.17×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 504$3.160.2%262.69.86×
Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial1 in 481$2.920.2%32.81.09×
CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 473$2.850.2%152.85.34×
StatTrak™ P250 | Contaminant (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 471$2.820.2%72.82.48×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Isaac (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 466$2.770.2%122.94.20×
Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Minimal Wear)weapon · 31 in 40$2.752.2%2633.00.79×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Sandstorm (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 40$2.712.1%3633.11.09×
PP-Bizon | Osiris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 40$2.622.1%1833.50.54×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 40$2.612.1%3733.51.10×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 40$2.602.1%433.60.12×
SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 39$2.492.0%3433.91.00×
Nova | Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 39$2.371.9%3934.41.13×
MAG-7 | Praetorian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 38$2.191.8%2734.90.77×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 38$2.161.8%3135.00.89×
StatTrak™ M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 38$2.141.8%1235.10.34×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet1 in 38$2.131.8%3635.11.03×
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 38$2.031.7%3535.30.99×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 38$2.001.7%3335.40.93×
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Breaker Box (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 37$1.941.6%4035.51.13×
Galil AR | Signal (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 37$1.881.6%3135.60.87×
SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 37$1.861.6%3335.70.93×
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 37$1.851.6%3635.71.01×
MP9 | Old Roots (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 37$1.771.5%2835.80.78×
UMP-45 | Indigo (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 37$1.711.5%4435.81.23×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Exposure (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 37$1.661.4%3735.81.03×
MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 37$1.621.4%3535.80.98×
StatTrak™ Nova | Gila (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 37$1.621.4%3535.80.98×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 37$1.551.3%3135.80.87×
StatTrak™ Negev | dev_texture (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 37$1.511.3%4435.71.23×
Souvenir AUG | Random Access (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 37$1.491.3%235.70.06×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Triarch (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 37$1.451.2%3635.61.01×
Glock-18 | Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 37$1.391.2%4935.51.38×
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 38$1.371.2%3635.41.02×
CZ75-Auto | Indigo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #7777771 in 38$1.341.1%2835.30.79×
XM1014 | Urban Perforated (Field-Tested)weapon · Common1 in 38$1.231.0%3634.81.03×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 39$1.120.9%4934.11.44×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 40$1.010.8%2633.10.79×
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 43$0.830.6%2430.70.78×
Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 56$0.530.3%2223.70.93×
PP-Bizon | Anolis (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 81$0.350.1%1716.31.04×
SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Field-Tested)weapon · grey1 in 88$0.320.1%915.10.60×
M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 446$0.100.0%53.01.68×
Negev | Ultralight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 1,112$0.060.0%21.21.67×
XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 1,312$0.060.0%11.00.99×
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/rack/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 114.82%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC$2.75114.82%150
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC$2.75118.72%150
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC$2.75111.57%150
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC$2.75109.06%150
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC$2.75111.97%150
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC$2.75112.67%150
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC$2.75114.14%150
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC$2.75114.33%150
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC$2.75110.66%150
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$2.75110.43%150
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 2.5%covert 0.2%gold 0.0%covert knife 0.1%Covert 0.1%Restricted 6.3%extraordinary 0.0%epic 0.0%classified 1.0%Legendary 0.2%#d32ee6 0.0%restricted 36.1%#ffd700 0.0%mil spec 0.7%Consumer Grade 6.2%Mil Spec Grade 11.4%blue 2.7%Rare 0.2%Industrial Grade 2.9%#4b69ff 0.1%pink 0.3%violet 8.0%Classified 0.3%light blue 0.2%#8847ff 5.4%Mythical 0.2%Industrial 0.2%milspec 5.6%Uncommon 2.7%#777777 2.7%Common 2.6%grey 1.1%uncommon 0.1%best hit —