ROAD-TO-LORE
A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$400.00
Advertised RTP
83.84%
EV $335.35 from 63 items
Observed RTP, 30d
21.03%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/road-to-lore/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.84%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $400 | 83.84% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $400 | 84.41% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $400 | 85.00% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $400 | 85.98% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $400 | 86.58% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $400 | 85.98% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $400 | 84.71% | 63 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $400 | 84.84% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $400 | 84.84% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $400 | 84.47% | 63 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 56.3%contraband 0.9%extraordinary 5.5%classified 10.1%gold 4.0%covert knife 5.2%#ffd700 0.3%#eb4b4b 0.3%Covert 0.3%restricted 2.2%red 2.2%epic 4.8%rare 2.5%Legendary 2.6%pink 2.6%best hit —