DRREAM&NIGHTMARES
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$1.55
Advertised RTP
117.11%
EV $1.82 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.30%
428 openings, odds method
Variance
25.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 428 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/rream&nightmares/info, 11 Nov, 20:24 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 117.11%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.55 | 117.11% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.55 | 119.51% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.55 | 116.62% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.55 | 117.61% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.55 | 106.28% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.55 | 116.74% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.55 | 106.67% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.55 | 106.55% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.55 | 112.79% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.55 | 112.86% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.1%covert 0.1%Ancient 0.1%restricted 19.5%Legendary 0.2%classified 2.0%Common 5.1%pink 0.3%Consumer Grade 9.8%#4b69ff 4.6%blue 0.6%Uncommon 5.2%mil spec 5.2%Restricted 1.2%Rare 5.8%Mythical 4.4%Mil Spec Grade 6.6%milspec 15.9%industrial 4.6%violet 8.8%best hit —