SHADOW
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$1.62
Advertised RTP
86.26%
EV $1.40 from 48 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.06%
100 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 100 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/shadow/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.26%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.62 | 86.26% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.62 | 86.15% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.62 | 85.47% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.62 | 86.69% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.62 | 84.95% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.62 | 88.17% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.62 | 92.45% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.62 | 87.75% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.62 | 88.37% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.62 | 91.90% | 48 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 1.1%light blue 0.3%industrial 5.2%#d32ce6 0.5%Industrial Grade 1.0%restricted 10.8%#8847ff 4.2%milspec 23.2%Mil Spec 0.5%mil spec 8.5%Consumer Grade 4.7%blue 4.6%Rare 19.7%Uncommon 4.2%Mil Spec Grade 4.2%#4b69ff 3.9%violet 3.5%best hit —