SPELL
A case on DROP.SKIN (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$17.38
Advertised RTP
86.97%
EV $15.12 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.24%
102 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/spell/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $17.38 | 86.97% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $17.38 | 87.49% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $17.38 | 88.48% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $17.38 | 87.88% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $17.38 | 87.84% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $17.38 | 90.03% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $17.38 | 89.21% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $17.38 | 90.14% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $17.38 | 90.00% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $17.38 | 90.19% | 43 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.8%classified 8.7%knifes 0.2%red 0.9%Ancient 0.5%Legendary 16.9%restricted 65.0%best hit —