THOR

A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price
$5.60
Advertised RTP
103.32%
EV $5.79 from 52 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.13%
234 openings, odds method
Variance
8.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
54 openings · below min
7 days
84.66%±39.39208 openings
30 days
82.13%±37.06234 openings
since tracking started
82.13%±37.06234 openings
17.0%95.3%173.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5495.30%±77.6—odds
7d20884.66%±39.4−1.0σodds
30d23482.13%±37.1−1.2σodds
All23482.13%±37.1−1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 234 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 1,309$2943.9%00.2—
M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,119$2513.9%00.2—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 940$2113.9%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 576$1293.9%00.4—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 427$95.753.9%00.5—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 400$89.763.9%00.6—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 267$59.863.9%00.9—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 267$59.793.9%00.9—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 150$33.553.9%01.60.00×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 135$30.293.9%51.72.89×
P250 | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 133$29.803.9%31.81.70×
SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 306$18.991.1%30.8—
AK-47 | Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 285$16.921.0%10.8—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 242$12.890.9%21.0—
P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 229$11.760.9%01.00.00×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 224$11.330.9%11.00.96×
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 215$10.560.8%11.10.92×
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 173$7.330.7%11.40.74×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 168$6.990.7%11.40.72×
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 164$6.750.7%21.41.40×
MAC-10 | Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 164$6.710.7%01.40.00×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 161$6.540.7%11.50.69×
Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec1 in 158$6.310.7%21.51.35×
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 150$5.810.7%31.61.92×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 148$5.650.7%41.62.52×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 137$5.000.6%11.70.59×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 28$4.622.8%108.31.21×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 28$4.212.6%58.50.59×
P250 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 28$4.182.6%128.51.41×
XM1014 | XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 28$4.182.6%98.51.06×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 27$3.922.5%48.60.46×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 27$3.702.4%58.70.58×
Nova | Gila (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 27$3.642.3%158.71.73×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 27$3.632.3%58.70.57×
P2000 | Red FragCam (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 27$3.542.3%58.70.57×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 27$3.472.2%108.71.14×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 27$3.332.2%158.81.71×
Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 27$3.242.1%68.80.68×
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 27$3.062.0%88.80.91×
PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 27$3.001.9%148.81.59×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 27$2.971.9%128.81.37×
Souvenir P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial1 in 27$2.941.9%108.81.14×
MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 27$2.651.7%88.70.92×
Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec1 in 27$2.471.6%98.71.04×
MAC-10 | Strats (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 27$2.241.4%108.51.17×
Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 28$2.191.4%68.50.71×
Souvenir MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial1 in 30$1.610.9%27.70.26×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 33$1.350.7%67.10.84×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 42$0.920.4%55.60.90×
SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 44$0.870.3%55.30.94×
XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 59$0.630.2%74.01.75×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 75$0.500.1%03.10.00×
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/thor/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 103.32%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC$5.60103.32%52
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC$5.60105.68%52
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC$5.60104.11%52
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC$5.60104.35%52
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC$5.60104.62%52
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC$5.60103.97%52
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC$5.60102.57%52
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC$5.60102.52%52
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC$5.60103.14%52
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$5.60103.61%52
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.1%covert 0.4%covert knife 0.8%classified 6.7%restricted 27.6%#d32ee6 0.3%blue 0.4%pink 4.3%mil spec 10.3%milspec 5.1%Legendary 3.6%Mythical 14.8%Mil Spec Grade 3.7%#4b69ff 3.7%Uncommon 3.7%industrial 7.1%Mil Spec 3.7%consumer 3.6%best hit —