Price
$5.60
Advertised RTP
103.32%
EV $5.79 from 52 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.13%
234 openings, odds method
Variance
8.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 234 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/thor/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 103.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $5.60 | 103.32% | 52 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $5.60 | 105.68% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $5.60 | 104.11% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $5.60 | 104.35% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $5.60 | 104.62% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $5.60 | 103.97% | 52 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $5.60 | 102.57% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $5.60 | 102.52% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $5.60 | 103.14% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $5.60 | 103.61% | 52 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.1%covert 0.4%covert knife 0.8%classified 6.7%restricted 27.6%#d32ee6 0.3%blue 0.4%pink 4.3%mil spec 10.3%milspec 5.1%Legendary 3.6%Mythical 14.8%Mil Spec Grade 3.7%#4b69ff 3.7%Uncommon 3.7%industrial 7.1%Mil Spec 3.7%consumer 3.6%best hit —