VAULT
A case on DROP.SKIN (gun_room), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$0.35
Advertised RTP
120.96%
EV $0.42 from 65 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.72%
2,885 openings, odds method
Variance
32.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 117.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (50.51% – 90.93%, 2,885 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,887 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/vault/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 120.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.35 | 120.96% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.35 | 121.83% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.35 | 115.38% | 65 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.35 | 115.49% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.35 | 119.33% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.35 | 115.99% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.35 | 113.65% | 65 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.35 | 115.06% | 65 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.35 | 118.72% | 65 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.35 | 120.60% | 65 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 11.2%2 0.8%red 0.0%classified 0.3%restricted 0.2%Covert 0.1%Industrial Grade 5.6%Classified 0.2%#d32ee6 0.2%Mil Spec Grade 9.6%milspec 26.0%mil spec 6.6%industrial 3.0%violet 0.7%consumer 1.6%Restricted 0.4%blue 0.4%Consumer Grade 10.4%Common 8.5%#4b69ff 14.3%best hit —