WILDFIRE
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$5.37
Advertised RTP
87.72%
EV $4.71 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.87%
42 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 42 openings and 8.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/wildfire/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec GradeAnaksunamun$5.37$4.780.89x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial GradeAnaksunamun$5.37$2.870.53x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.72%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $5.37 | 87.72% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $5.37 | 87.69% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $5.37 | 86.47% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $5.37 | 89.66% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $5.37 | 87.45% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $5.37 | 88.29% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $5.37 | 86.39% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $5.37 | 88.01% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $5.37 | 86.74% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $5.37 | 87.20% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%gold 0.4%restricted 9.7%Legendary 9.2%milspec 12.3%#d32ee6 0.6%classified 5.4%mil spec 9.2%pink 1.2%violet 0.4%blue 0.4%Restricted 4.7%Mil Spec Grade 8.0%Mil Spec 4.6%#4b69ff 7.1%Rare 9.0%Industrial Grade 8.9%consumer 4.5%Uncommon 4.2%best hit —