Goldson v2
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$40.00
Advertised RTP
88.84%
EV $35.54 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.60%
676 openings, odds method
Variance
16.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 676 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1009079, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.84%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $40.00 | 88.84% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 12.6%#eb4b4b 5.6%extraordinary 8.0%restricted 3.0%red 3.1%#8847ff 6.3%Rare 61.4%best hit $1,460 (36.51x)