10% Knives
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$11.70
Advertised RTP
83.88%
EV $9.81 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.22%
6,453 openings, odds method
Variance
9.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 32
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,453 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/107, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $11.70 | 83.88% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $12.50 | 84.05% | 26 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.9%#ffd700 1.9%Immortal 0.1%Covert 0.1%consumer 90.0%best hit $651 (55.64x)