Beast

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$2.70

Advertised RTP

88.97%

EV $2.40 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.89%

55.1K openings, odds method

Variance

4.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.16%±4.089,458 openings

7 days

89.60%±1.8646.7K openings

30 days

89.89%±1.7255.1K openings

since tracking started

89.89%±1.7255.1K openings

87.0%92.5%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	9,458	93.16%±4.08	+2.0σ	odds
7d	46.7K	89.60%±1.86	+0.7σ	odds
30d	55.1K	89.89%±1.72	+1.0σ	odds
All	55.1K	89.89%±1.72	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$433	0.5%	4	1.7	2.41×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$234	0.5%	4	2.8	1.44×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$233	0.5%	3	2.8	1.08×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$230	0.5%	1	2.8	0.36×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$134	0.4%	7	4.4	1.58×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$131	0.4%	4	4.4	0.90×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$128	0.5%	6	5.0	1.20×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$123	0.5%	2	5.0	0.40×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$74.45	0.5%	7	8.3	0.84×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$53.64	0.4%	16	11.1	1.44×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$39.06	0.5%	18	15.5	1.16×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 3,571	$38.42	0.4%	14	15.5	0.90×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,448	$36.93	0.4%	12	16.1	0.75×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,857	$31.48	0.5%	20	19.4	1.03×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$28.75	0.5%	25	21.0	1.19×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 376	$22.22	2.5%	130	147.3	0.88×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 372	$21.97	2.5%	154	148.9	1.03×
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 249	$14.71	2.5%	207	222.6	0.93×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 231	$13.65	2.5%	193	239.8	0.80×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 217	$12.82	2.5%	205	255.3	0.80×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 190	$11.26	2.5%	266	290.7	0.92×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 187	$11.07	2.5%	245	295.7	0.83×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 126	$7.44	2.5%	406	439.6	0.92×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 113	$6.67	2.5%	436	490.6	0.89×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 105	$6.23	2.5%	498	524.9	0.95×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 93	$5.51	2.5%	549	593.6	0.92×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$5.23	5.5%	1,116	1405.8	0.79×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 33	$4.39	5.5%	1,724	1674.9	1.03×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$4.22	5.5%	1,737	1741.9	1.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 31	$4.11	5.5%	1,795	1789.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$3.91	5.5%	1,907	1880.4	1.01×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$3.77	5.5%	1,987	1950.1	1.02×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$3.58	5.5%	2,015	2053.7	0.98×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 27	$3.58	5.5%	2,091	2053.7	1.02×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 25	$3.33	5.5%	2,201	2207.6	1.00×
FAMAS \| Sergeant (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$2.12	1.4%	842	874.8	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$1.43	1.4%	1,222	1297.3	0.94×
P90 \| Off World (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 38	$1.27	1.4%	1,417	1460.7	0.97×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$1.06	1.4%	1,555	1749.7	0.89×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$0.99	1.4%	1,732	1873.7	0.92×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18	$0.61	1.4%	2,816	3040.9	0.93×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18	$0.59	1.4%	2,840	3143.9	0.90×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 16	$0.55	1.4%	3,116	3372.6	0.92×
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 38	$0.46	0.5%	1,527	1444.6	1.06×
Patch \| Hydrapatch · Rare	1 in 37	$0.44	0.5%	1,694	1509.9	1.12×
MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 36	$0.43	0.5%	1,589	1545.4	1.03×
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 34	$0.41	0.5%	1,856	1620.7	1.15×
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 34	$0.41	0.5%	1,826	1620.7	1.13×
MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$0.40	0.5%	1,831	1661.1	1.10×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 30	$0.36	0.5%	2,094	1845.5	1.13×
Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$0.32	0.5%	2,106	2076.4	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Off World (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 26	$0.31	0.5%	2,361	2143.4	1.10×
P90 \| Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.29	0.6%	2,941	2547.0	1.15×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/112, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert$2.70$539199.6x7d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covertLeonardo$2.70$433160.5x10h

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert$2.70$433160.5x21h

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covertdeymos$2.70$433160.5x3d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covertムMV ♥ ♕ ツ太$2.70$333123.4x8d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertJAMAJ$2.70$323119.6x6d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertOlis.skins.army$2.70$25092.58x5d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertZłoty chlopiec Paweł$2.70$23486.53x20h

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertKucyk$2.70$23486.53x2d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · coverturbixmeister$2.70$23486.53x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedKubu$$2.70$5.231.94x13s

Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffSlaskee$2.70$0.320.12x13s

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6Larry$2.70$6.232.31x13s

XM1014 | XOXO (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6Kubu$$2.70$3.581.33x13s

P90 | Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specSlaskee$2.70$0.290.11x13s

MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedLarry$2.70$5.231.94x13s

MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffAzot_w_ryj$2.70$0.430.16x38s

Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffwojferskins.army$2.70$0.320.12x38s

Nova | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$2.70$11.264.17x41s

P2000 | Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff【６７】Jewstein$2.70$0.610.23x41s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 13:17 UTC	$2.70	88.97%	53
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$2.70	88.99%	53

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%#d32ce6 0.0%#d32ee6 11.7%classified 13.7%pink 4.9%Legendary 3.2%restricted 11.5%violet 2.3%mil spec 7.2%#8847ff 22.8%Rare 8.8%Mythical 2.6%milspec 3.3%#4b69ff 7.6%best hit $539 (199.6x)