I need a dollar
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
88.89%
EV $0.89 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.85%
93.4K openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 93.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/129, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $1.00 | 88.89% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $1.00 | 88.94% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%mil spec 13.2%classified 0.1%#777777 0.1%#d32ee6 0.3%pink 0.1%restricted 12.8%#4b69ff 10.2%industrial 0.3%#87c7ff 40.5%Rare 7.5%#8847ff 2.9%milspec 3.2%Uncommon 8.8%best hit —