PPL
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$12.00
Advertised RTP
88.84%
EV $10.66 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.81%
3,331 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,341 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1460038, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.84%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $12.00 | 88.84% | 43 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.2%extraordinary 0.7%sunny 0.1%classified 13.7%#eb4b4b 0.3%red 0.3%covert knife 0.3%Covert 0.4%gold 0.5%Ancient 0.7%pink 7.0%restricted 4.0%#d32ee6 4.7%mil spec 1.4%Rare 5.4%milspec 17.1%#4b69ff 24.6%blue 16.5%best hit —