Winchester
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$55.00
Advertised RTP
88.97%
EV $48.93 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.23%
633 openings, odds method
Variance
6.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 633 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1460151, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $55.00 | 88.97% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 19.6%legendary 0.0%sunny 1.0%classified 2.1%gold 0.1%#ffd700 0.1%extraordinary 2.9%#4b69ff 74.2%best hit $5,218 (94.87x)