Dejvid

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$50.00

Advertised RTP

88.97%

EV $44.49 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.93%

426 openings, odds method

Variance

4.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

70 openings · below min

7 days

81.97%±22.19383 openings

30 days

78.93%±21.04426 openings

since tracking started

78.93%±21.04426 openings

14.5%67.3%120.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	70	67.25%±51.9	—	odds
7d	383	81.97%±22.2	−0.6σ	odds
30d	426	78.93%±21.0	−0.9σ	odds
All	426	78.93%±21.0	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 426 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 2,128	$2,257	2.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$2,140	2.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$1,634	2.4%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 893	$948	2.4%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 769	$818	2.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 606	$644	2.4%	1	0.7	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 375	$424	2.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 327	$370	2.5%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 240	$273	2.5%	2	1.8	1.13×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 228	$259	2.5%	2	1.9	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 216	$244	2.5%	1	2.0	0.51×
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 214	$242	2.5%	1	2.0	0.50×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 211	$239	2.5%	5	2.0	2.48×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 200	$227	2.5%	4	2.1	1.88×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 193	$219	2.5%	0	2.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 156	$176	2.5%	2	2.7	0.73×
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$162	2.5%	6	3.0	2.01×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Splash (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 122	$138	2.5%	3	3.5	0.86×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 114	$129	2.5%	7	3.7	1.87×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 110	$125	2.5%	2	3.9	0.52×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 109	$124	2.5%	5	3.9	1.28×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 27	$92.55	7.8%	16	15.9	1.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 24	$83.44	7.8%	17	17.7	0.96×
★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 22	$76.58	7.8%	16	19.3	0.83×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 18	$61.12	7.8%	25	24.1	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 16	$57.12	7.8%	29	25.8	1.12×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 16	$56.34	7.8%	21	26.2	0.80×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 833	$34.41	0.1%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 833	$34.28	0.1%	1	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$1.02	0.1%	14	17.2	0.81×
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 24	$0.99	0.1%	20	17.8	1.13×
AUG \| Tom Cat (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	10.3%	$0.40	0.1%	47	43.9	1.07×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	10.9%	$0.38	0.1%	54	46.2	1.17×
Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	14.7%	$0.28	0.1%	70	62.8	1.12×
P90 \| Grim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	16.1%	$0.26	0.1%	54	68.5	0.79×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1460373, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$50.00$64412.88x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffDnaMoczanowa$50.00$0.280.01x46m

M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$50.00$61.121.22x46m

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$50.00$2274.55x46m

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69fftype shittttt$50.00$0.380.01x46m

Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff$50.00$0.280.01x49m

P90 | Grim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69fftype shittttt$50.00$0.260.01x49m

AUG | Tom Cat (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff$50.00$0.400.01x54m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$50.00	88.97%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.0%classified 8.8%covert 26.8%#ffd700 0.3%extraordinary 0.6%Extraordinary 0.5%sunny 0.5%restricted 1.5%red 0.9%#8847ff 4.0%#4b69ff 56.1%best hit $644 (12.88x)