Overpass

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$4.00

Advertised RTP

89.00%

EV $3.56 from 78 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.38%

8,435 openings, odds method

Variance

5.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.94%±14.50914 openings

7 days

92.09%±5.256,976 openings

30 days

91.38%±4.778,435 openings

since tracking started

91.38%±4.778,435 openings

72.0%87.0%102.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	914	86.94%±14.5	−0.3σ	odds
7d	6,976	92.09%±5.25	+1.2σ	odds
30d	8,435	91.38%±4.77	+1.0σ	odds
All	8,435	91.38%±4.77	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values78 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,460 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 7,143	$397	1.6%	4	1.2	3.38×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,778	$160	1.6%	3	3.0	0.99×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$94.41	1.6%	5	5.1	0.99×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 1,667	$94.34	1.6%	6	5.1	1.18×
AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,515	$86.32	1.6%	6	5.6	1.07×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 952	$54.21	1.6%	8	8.9	0.90×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 855	$48.90	1.6%	7	9.9	0.71×
AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 794	$45.28	1.6%	4	10.7	0.38×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 111	$25.33	6.4%	69	76.3	0.90×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 107	$24.54	6.4%	93	78.8	1.18×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 95	$21.73	6.4%	92	89.0	1.03×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 85	$19.53	6.4%	88	99.0	0.89×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 54	$12.42	6.4%	146	155.7	0.94×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 52	$11.98	6.4%	175	161.4	1.08×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$8.88	6.4%	204	217.8	0.94×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 32	$8.69	7.5%	260	260.9	1.00×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 32	$8.49	7.5%	252	267.1	0.94×
XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 25	$6.82	7.5%	334	332.5	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$4.74	7.5%	512	478.3	1.07×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 15	$4.01	7.5%	582	565.4	1.03×
XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,149	$3.85	0.1%	6	7.4	0.82×
MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 901	$3.00	0.1%	7	9.4	0.75×
XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 680	$2.26	0.1%	14	12.4	1.13×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 658	$2.19	0.1%	10	12.9	0.78×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 649	$2.17	0.1%	14	13.0	1.07×
XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 645	$2.15	0.1%	14	13.1	1.07×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 645	$2.15	0.1%	20	13.1	1.53×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 645	$2.15	0.1%	8	13.1	0.61×
XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 637	$2.12	0.1%	9	13.3	0.68×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 637	$2.12	0.1%	14	13.3	1.05×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 578	$1.93	0.1%	15	14.6	1.02×
Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 571	$1.90	0.1%	19	14.8	1.28×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 467	$1.56	0.1%	21	18.1	1.16×
MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 288	$0.96	0.1%	35	29.4	1.19×
Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 237	$0.79	0.1%	39	35.7	1.09×
Negev \| Wall Bang (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 210	$0.70	0.1%	36	40.3	0.89×
Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 189	$0.63	0.1%	43	44.8	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 177	$0.59	0.1%	42	47.8	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 168	$0.56	0.1%	55	50.3	1.09×
MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 132	$0.44	0.1%	54	64.0	0.84×
Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 123	$0.41	0.1%	68	68.8	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 105	$0.35	0.1%	91	80.5	1.13×
P90 \| Wash me (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 102	$0.34	0.1%	95	82.9	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 99	$0.33	0.1%	77	85.4	0.90×
MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 93	$0.31	0.1%	84	90.9	0.92×
Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 87	$0.29	0.1%	102	97.2	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 87	$0.29	0.1%	112	97.2	1.15×
MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 78	$0.26	0.1%	119	108.5	1.10×
Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 75	$0.25	0.1%	107	112.8	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 66	$0.22	0.1%	129	128.2	1.01×
Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 66	$0.22	0.1%	158	128.2	1.23×
Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 66	$0.22	0.1%	128	128.2	1.00×
Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 66	$0.22	0.1%	137	128.2	1.07×
Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 66	$0.22	0.1%	133	128.2	1.04×
Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 66	$0.22	0.1%	131	128.2	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 66	$0.22	0.1%	123	128.2	0.96×
Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 102	$0.21	0.1%	66	82.8	0.80×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 98	$0.20	0.1%	76	86.5	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 93	$0.19	0.1%	82	91.0	0.90×
Five-SeveN \| Midnight Paintover (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 88	$0.18	0.1%	98	96.1	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Midnight Paintover (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 83	$0.17	0.1%	90	101.8	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 83	$0.17	0.1%	84	101.8	0.83×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight	1 in 83	$0.17	0.1%	113	101.8	1.11×
Five-SeveN \| Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 83	$0.17	0.1%	100	101.8	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Midnight Paintover (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 83	$0.17	0.1%	91	101.8	0.89×
P90 \| Wash me (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 73	$0.15	0.1%	102	115.3	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 68	$0.14	0.1%	134	123.6	1.08×
P90 \| Wash me (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 68	$0.14	0.1%	130	123.6	1.05×
MP5-SD \| Neon Squeezer (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 64	$0.13	0.1%	126	133.1	0.95×
Negev \| Wall Bang (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 54	$0.11	0.1%	154	157.3	0.98×
Negev \| Wall Bang (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 54	$0.11	0.1%	193	157.3	1.23×
Negev \| Wall Bang (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight	1 in 39	$0.08	0.1%	221	216.2	1.02×
MP5-SD \| Neon Squeezer (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 39	$0.08	0.1%	221	216.2	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Midnight Paintover (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 39	$0.08	0.1%	197	216.2	0.91×
P90 \| Wash me (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 34	$0.07	0.1%	236	247.1	0.96×
MP5-SD \| Neon Squeezer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 34	$0.07	0.1%	272	247.1	1.10×
P90 \| Wash me (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 34	$0.07	0.1%	253	247.1	1.02×
Negev \| Wall Bang (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 23	$0.06	0.1%	302	360.8	0.84×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1567765, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendaryŁysy po flashu$4.00$39799.23x2d

AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary$4.00$39799.23x3d

AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendaryCocaCola2025$4.00$39799.23x6d

AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary$4.00$39799.23x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$4.00$0.220.06x2m

P90 | Wash me (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9$4.00$0.070.02x2m

AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicalpendiii skins.army$4.00$4.011.00x2m

Nova | Wurst Hölle (Well-Worn)weapon · blue$4.00$0.220.06x25m

MP5-SD | Neon Squeezer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9spoconajula skins.army$4.00$0.070.02x25m

MP5-SD | Neon Squeezer (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9Filipek$4.00$0.130.03x33m

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec→●σѕкαя●←⭕⃤$4.00$0.410.10x33m

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffKriczeq$4.00$0.220.06x33m

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalTezikN$4.00$4.741.19x33m

M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$4.00$0.140.04x37m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$4.00	89.00%	78

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%Ancient 0.0%covert 0.1%rare 2.5%pink 3.5%uncommon 13.9%#d32ce6 1.8%Mythical 12.3%restricted 0.4%Rare 1.8%violet 0.5%milspec 7.6%blueLight 5.1%blue 2.9%#5e98d9 19.2%Uncommon 4.0%industrial 17.0%#4b69ff 7.4%best hit $397 (99.23x)