Access Override

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$1.00

Advertised RTP

88.89%

EV $0.89 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.26%

46.9K openings, odds method

Variance

35.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 95

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.35%±15.235,920 openings

7 days

84.21%±5.9938.9K openings

30 days

84.26%±5.5246.9K openings

since tracking started

84.26%±5.5246.9K openings

71.5%87.3%103.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5,920	87.35%±15.2	−0.2σ	odds
7d	38.9K	84.21%±5.99	−1.5σ	odds
30d	46.9K	84.26%±5.52	−1.7σ	odds
All	46.9K	84.26%±5.52	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$126	4.3%	10	14.1	0.71×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$111	4.4%	8	16.5	0.49×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 1,351	$52.23	4.3%	34	34.8	0.98×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$45.30	4.3%	34	40.0	0.85×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$43.97	4.4%	38	41.4	0.92×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,075	$41.61	4.4%	55	43.8	1.26×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 990	$38.23	4.3%	44	47.5	0.93×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 952	$36.69	4.3%	58	49.4	1.17×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 943	$36.47	4.3%	41	49.9	0.82×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 935	$36.27	4.4%	47	50.3	0.93×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 885	$34.31	4.4%	52	53.2	0.98×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 885	$34.22	4.4%	41	53.2	0.77×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert	1 in 877	$34.03	4.4%	56	53.6	1.04×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 855	$33.14	4.4%	49	55.0	0.89×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 847	$32.66	4.3%	46	55.5	0.83×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 826	$32.01	4.4%	48	56.9	0.84×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 794	$30.55	4.3%	58	59.3	0.98×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 787	$30.34	4.3%	54	59.7	0.90×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 787	$30.31	4.3%	64	59.7	1.07×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 775	$30.05	4.4%	62	60.7	1.02×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 775	$29.95	4.3%	57	60.7	0.94×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 704	$27.19	4.3%	63	66.8	0.94×
AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	97.7%	$0.04	4.4%	46,025	45962.0	1.00×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635091, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertwkdirjsj_skins.army$1.00$171170.7x8d

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covertMrysiak$1.00$140140.1x6d

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$1.00$140140.1x8d

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$1.00$126126.1x4h

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covertkacperskins.army$1.00$126126.1x1d

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$1.00$126126.1x3d

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covertView™$1.00$126126.1x4d

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covertWykręcony Joint$1.00$126126.1x5d

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covertuziwyjeba$1.00$126126.1x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covertYrath$1.00$36.4736.47x2m

AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerNeo_mix$1.00$0.040.04x2m

AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.00$0.040.04x2m

AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerHinol <3$1.00$0.040.04x2m

AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerSlowik (COACH) skins.army$1.00$0.040.04x2m

AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerobszczanejaja95$1.00$0.040.04x2m

AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.00$0.040.04x3m

AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKoByLaaa$1.00$0.040.04x3m

AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerkwiatek$1.00$0.040.04x5m

AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerjapula$1.00$0.040.04x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
5 Nov, 18:07 UTC	$1.00	88.89%	23
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$1.00	89.20%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.2%Ancient 0.6%red 0.7%consumer 97.7%best hit $171 (170.7x)