Digital Scope

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$30.00
Advertised RTP
88.88%
EV $26.66 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.25%
1,320 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
97 openings · below min
7 days
87.41%±5.44976 openings
30 days
87.25%±4.681,320 openings
since tracking started
87.25%±4.681,320 openings
81.5%100.5%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h97101.80%±17.3—odds
7d97687.41%±5.44−0.5σodds
30d1,32087.25%±4.68−0.7σodds
All1,32087.25%±4.68−0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,346 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 289$2603.4%24.70.43×
AUG | Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 108$96.943.4%912.50.72×
AUG | Chameleon (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 105$94.323.4%1112.80.86×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 90$80.723.4%1815.01.20×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 89$80.263.4%1015.10.66×
USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 80$71.513.4%2016.91.18×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 78$69.663.4%1317.30.75×
AWP | LongDog (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 74$66.863.4%1718.10.94×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 71$63.703.4%2219.01.16×
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 70$62.663.4%2119.31.09×
FAMAS | Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 71$57.843.1%2319.01.21×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 65$53.183.1%2420.71.16×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 65$53.033.1%1820.80.87×
AWP | LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 52$42.733.1%3725.81.44×
AWP | LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient1 in 52$42.623.1%2725.81.04×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 49$40.423.1%3427.21.25×
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 43$35.013.1%3731.51.18×
AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 43$34.883.1%3331.61.05×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 42$34.303.1%3032.10.93×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 42$33.963.1%1932.40.59×
M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 41$33.853.1%3332.51.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 36$28.633.0%3837.61.01×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 34$27.343.0%4939.41.24×
M4A4 | Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 34$27.173.0%3539.60.88×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 34$26.893.0%2840.00.70×
AK-47 | Aphrodite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 33$26.333.0%3940.90.95×
StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 31$25.203.0%3942.70.91×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce648.7%$7.9714.6%660655.71.01×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635092, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$30.0088.88%28
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 22.0%red 17.3%rare 2.8%uncommon 1.4%Ancient 5.0%#eb4b4b 2.8%#d32ce6 48.7%best hit —