Shadow Optics

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$150.00

Advertised RTP

88.88%

EV $133.33 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.54%

175 openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

27 openings · below min

7 days

88.03%±25.07166 openings

30 days

87.54%±24.41175 openings

since tracking started

87.54%±24.41175 openings

42.0%105.0%168.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	27	104.96%±62.2	—	odds
7d	166	88.03%±25.1	−0.1σ	odds
30d	175	87.54%±24.4	−0.1σ	odds
All	175	87.54%±24.4	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 175 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 980	$3,665	2.8%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 543	$2,036	2.8%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 408	$1,534	2.8%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 376	$1,408	2.8%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 331	$1,240	2.8%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$1,217	2.8%	1	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 315	$1,184	2.8%	2	0.6	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 300	$1,126	2.8%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 118	$663	4.2%	2	1.5	1.35×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$494	4.2%	5	2.0	2.51×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$490	4.2%	2	2.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$477	4.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 75	$422	4.2%	2	2.3	0.86×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 67	$376	4.2%	3	2.6	1.14×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$361	4.2%	0	2.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$345	4.2%	8	2.8	2.81×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 104	$292	2.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$281	2.1%	6	1.8	3.43×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$238	2.1%	1	2.1	0.48×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 83	$233	2.1%	1	2.1	0.47×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$221	2.1%	1	2.2	0.45×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 75	$211	2.1%	2	2.3	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$192	2.1%	1	2.6	0.39×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 68	$190	2.1%	1	2.6	0.39×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$182	2.1%	2	2.7	0.74×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 62	$174	2.1%	4	2.8	1.41×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$164	2.1%	3	3.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$156	2.1%	6	3.1	1.91×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 55	$153	2.1%	3	3.2	0.94×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	69.2%	$31.56	16.4%	119	121.1	0.98×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635150, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert$150$1,2178.11x5d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertsaju$150$1,1847.90x1d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$150$1,1847.90x2d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertFrancesco$150$6634.42x13h

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$150$6634.42x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$150$31.560.21x56m

AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert$150$3452.30x56m

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covertBylek$150$2811.87x56m

AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert$150$1641.10x1h

AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · coverttwitch.tv/kosior_777$150$3452.30x1h

M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$150$31.560.21x11h

M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · redTalib$150$31.560.21x11h

M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$150$31.560.21x13h

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert$150$2811.87x13h

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertFrancesco$150$6634.42x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$150	88.88%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 23.8%legendary 1.5%Covert 1.0%red 70.4%epic 1.5%Ancient 1.8%best hit $1,217 (8.11x)