Cyber Burst

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$310.00

Advertised RTP

85.90%

EV $266.30 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.37%

102 openings, odds method

Variance

8.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

24 openings · below min

7 days

95 openings · below min

30 days

102 openings · below min

since tracking started

102 openings · below min

17.0%140.8%264.5%

Small sample. 102 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	24	144.54%±119.5	—	odds
7d	95	78.78%±60.1	—	odds
30d	102	75.37%±58.0	—	odds
All	102	75.37%±58.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,449	$17.5K	4.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 885	$13.6K	5.8%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 694	$10.5K	5.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 368	$5,698	5.8%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 311	$5,413	6.5%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 248	$2,718	4.1%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 166	$2,036	4.6%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$1,701	2.9%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 164	$1,699	3.9%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 163	$1,408	3.3%	1	0.6	—
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$1,217	4.7%	0	1.0	0.00×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 102	$1,183	4.4%	1	1.0	1.00×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$1,126	3.8%	1	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 95	$1,004	4.0%	2	1.1	1.87×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 89	$729	3.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 75	$506	2.5%	5	1.4	3.68×
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	90.0%	$90.33	30.5%	90	91.8	0.98×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635152, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.