Black Pearl
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$295.00
Advertised RTP
86.44%
EV $254.99 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.90%
184 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 184 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635183, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearlaimstarooo$295$1,3014.41x
★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black PearlIG:Szymonekk17_$295$1,2444.22x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.44%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $295 | 86.44% | 33 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 19.4%legendary 2.7%gold 0.6%#ffd700 0.9%classified 7.6%mil spec 1.9%restricted 2.4%pink 4.3%Rare 60.1%best hit $13.8K (46.74x)