Golden Coast

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$0.50
Advertised RTP
88.95%
EV $0.44 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.11%
107K openings, odds method
Variance
9.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
92.78%±5.2313.6K openings
7 days
87.56%±2.2289.5K openings
30 days
88.11%±2.04107K openings
since tracking started
88.11%±2.04107K openings
84.5%91.5%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h13.6K92.78%±5.23+1.4σodds
7d89.5K87.56%±2.22−1.2σodds
30d107K88.11%±2.04−0.8σodds
All107K88.11%±2.04−0.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 107K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 4,762$37.961.8%2222.40.98×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 4,167$32.481.8%2425.60.94×
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 3,846$30.311.8%2627.80.94×
P250 | Mehndi (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 3,846$30.051.8%2727.80.97×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 3,846$30.041.8%1927.80.68×
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 3,704$28.811.7%2528.90.87×
Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,857$22.521.8%2437.40.64×
Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 2,000$15.961.8%2053.40.37×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,887$14.961.8%7756.61.36×
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 1,389$10.991.8%6676.90.86×
USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 847$6.691.8%113126.10.90×
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 714$5.651.8%130149.60.87×
Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 190$3.333.9%405562.10.72×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 183$3.203.9%458584.60.78×
Nova | Koi (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 173$3.033.9%449617.70.73×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 161$2.823.9%677663.61.02×
CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 147$2.573.9%585727.80.80×
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 127$2.233.9%642838.90.77×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 118$2.063.9%623908.40.69×
P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 99$1.733.9%5821081.50.54×
Glock-18 | Catacombs (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 71$1.253.9%1,1451496.10.77×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Quicksilver (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 65$1.143.9%1,2521640.40.76×
Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 57$0.983.9%2,2261878.71.18×
G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec1 in 45$0.773.9%4922390.60.21×
M249 | Deep Relief (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 41$0.713.9%6072592.60.23×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 41$0.713.9%6282592.60.24×
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 35$0.603.9%7033067.10.23×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 35$0.603.9%6853067.10.22×
Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 34$0.593.9%6733119.40.22×
CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 34$0.583.9%1,9073172.90.60×
MAC-10 | Carnivore (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 30$0.523.9%4,2033539.41.19×
Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d967.1%$0.034.5%65,26171665.00.91×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635293, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 21:11 UTC$0.5088.95%32
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$0.5088.90%32
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.1%restricted 10.9%mil spec 5.4%pink 0.1%Mythical 1.1%#4b69ff 2.2%milspec 2.6%Mil Spec 2.2%Mil Spec Grade 2.4%violet 2.9%Rare 3.0%#b0c3d9 67.1%best hit $57.66 (115.3x)