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Harlequin

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$0.70
Advertised RTP
88.81%
EV $0.62 from 73 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.52%
63K openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
87.85%±4.957,283 openings
7 days
88.83%±1.8353.3K openings
30 days
88.52%±1.6863K openings
since tracking started
88.52%±1.6863K openings
82.0%87.8%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h7,28387.85%±4.95−0.4σodds
7d53.3K88.83%±1.83+0.0σodds
30d63K88.52%±1.68−0.3σodds
All63K88.52%±1.68−0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values73 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 63.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 1,562$30.213.1%5540.41.36×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce61 in 980$19.003.1%6264.40.96×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 641$12.333.1%10798.51.09×
USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 510$9.833.1%109123.80.88×
AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 493$9.493.1%103128.20.80×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 448$8.633.1%133140.80.94×
M4A1-S | Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 422$8.133.1%147149.60.98×
AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 249$5.493.5%246253.20.97×
USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 203$4.463.5%293311.30.94×
AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 165$3.633.5%383382.61.00×
AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 137$3.023.5%460459.71.00×
AWP | Exothermic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 131$2.883.5%509482.41.06×
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 129$2.843.5%491489.31.00×
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 78$1.713.5%815812.61.00×
USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 59$1.293.5%1,0211076.50.95×
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 58$1.273.5%1,0861093.60.99×
USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 55$1.223.5%1,0801138.40.95×
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 55$1.223.5%1,1491138.41.01×
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 49$1.083.5%1,2481286.20.97×
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 46$1.023.5%1,3321361.90.98×
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 44$0.973.5%1,4691432.01.03×
USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 43$0.953.5%1,4721462.31.01×
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 38$0.843.5%1,7141653.61.04×
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 63$0.481.2%1,032999.51.03×
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 62$0.471.2%1,0331021.01.01×
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 43$0.331.2%1,4981454.11.03×
R8 Revolver | Mauve Aside (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 41$0.311.2%1,5401548.20.99×
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 38$0.291.2%1,7031654.91.03×
MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 38$0.291.2%1,6161654.90.98×
MP9 | Bee-Tron (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 38$0.291.2%1,6711654.91.01×
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 34$0.261.2%1,8061845.60.98×
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 32$0.241.2%1,9211999.60.96×
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 30$0.231.2%2,0572086.10.99×
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 30$0.231.2%2,0522086.10.98×
MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 30$0.231.2%2,0552086.10.99×
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 30$0.231.2%2,0712086.10.99×
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 30$0.231.2%2,0952086.11.00×
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 30$0.231.2%2,1172086.11.01×
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 345$0.210.1%179183.10.98×
XM1014 | XoooM (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 357$0.210.1%165176.80.93×
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 340$0.200.1%199185.61.07×
XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 340$0.200.1%183185.60.99×
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 340$0.200.1%211185.61.14×
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight1 in 306$0.180.1%214206.51.04×
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 289$0.170.1%230218.51.05×
MP5-SD | Picnic (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 289$0.170.1%221218.51.01×
MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 255$0.150.1%253247.51.02×
MP9 | Bee-Tron (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 238$0.140.1%243265.20.92×
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 187$0.110.1%320337.80.95×
MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 187$0.110.1%328337.80.97×
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 170$0.100.1%360371.30.97×
MP5-SD | Picnic (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 119$0.070.1%535530.41.01×
MP7 | Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 119$0.070.1%544530.41.03×
SG 553 | Safari Print (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 119$0.070.1%544530.41.03×
CZ75-Auto | Honey Paisley (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 119$0.070.1%522530.40.98×
XM1014 | XoooM (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 102$0.060.1%657618.81.06×
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 102$0.060.1%629618.81.02×
FAMAS | Byproduct (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 102$0.060.1%669618.81.08×
Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 102$0.060.1%621618.81.00×
PP-Bizon | Thermal Currents (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 85$0.050.1%727742.50.98×
R8 Revolver | Mauve Aside (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 85$0.050.1%738742.50.99×
SG 553 | Safari Print (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 85$0.050.1%758742.51.02×
CZ75-Auto | Honey Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 85$0.050.1%710742.50.96×
Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear)weapon · grey1 in 85$0.050.1%777742.51.05×
PP-Bizon | Thermal Currents (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 85$0.050.1%724742.50.98×
FAMAS | Byproduct (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 85$0.050.1%733742.50.99×
PP-Bizon | Thermal Currents (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 85$0.050.1%748742.51.01×
MP9 | Bee-Tron (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 46$0.030.1%1,4581366.31.07×
Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 51$0.030.1%1,2561237.51.01×
FAMAS | Byproduct (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 51$0.030.1%1,1971237.50.97×
R8 Revolver | Mauve Aside (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 51$0.030.1%1,1921237.50.96×
CZ75-Auto | Honey Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 51$0.030.1%1,2701237.51.03×
SG 553 | Safari Print (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 51$0.030.1%1,2741237.51.03×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635320, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$0.70$1.081.54x
R8 Revolver | Mauve Aside (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9Nata222$0.70$0.310.44x
USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$0.70$1.221.74x
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · bluenicaragua.Ezbi$0.70$0.230.33x
FAMAS | Byproduct (Factory New)weapon · Common$0.70$0.060.09x
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffnicaragua.Ezbi$0.70$0.230.33x
MP9 | Bee-Tron (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9$0.70$0.030.04x
PP-Bizon | Thermal Currents (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumernicaragua.Ezbi$0.70$0.050.07x
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9$0.70$0.060.09x
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffnicaragua.Ezbi$0.70$1.021.46x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.81%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$0.7088.81%73
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 0.5%#d32ce6 0.1%Mythical 0.4%classified 0.2%restricted 2.9%#8847ff 5.9%#4b69ff 34.7%#5e98d9 11.2%Uncommon 3.0%milspec 2.6%Rare 1.6%#b0c3d9 22.9%blue 3.3%blueLight 0.3%industrial 2.2%Common 4.1%light blue 0.6%consumer 2.4%grey 1.2%best hit —