Dead Hand

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$6.00
Advertised RTP
88.89%
EV $5.33 from 164 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.58%
12.7K openings, odds method
Variance
77.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 142
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
77.41%±43.151,604 openings
7 days
100.21%±16.7610.6K openings
30 days
99.58%±15.3612.7K openings
since tracking started
99.58%±15.3612.7K openings
33.5%77.3%121.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,60477.41%±43.2−0.5σodds
7d10.6K100.21%±16.8+1.3σodds
30d12.7K99.58%±15.4+1.4σodds
All12.7K99.58%±15.4+1.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values164 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 100,000$6,7691.3%00.1—
★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 100,000$6,0771.1%10.1—
★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$2,4640.9%00.3—
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$2,3400.9%00.3—
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$2,2760.9%00.3—
★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$2,2730.9%00.3—
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$1,8960.7%00.3—
★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$1,8930.7%00.3—
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$1,7590.7%10.3—
★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$1,6870.6%00.3—
★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$1,6400.6%10.3—
★ Driver Gloves | Garden (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$1,5610.6%00.3—
★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$1,5390.6%00.3—
★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 50,000$1,5330.6%00.3—
★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer (Factory New)gloves · #eb4b4b1 in 33,333$1,4480.8%00.4—
★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Minimal Wear)gloves · sunny1 in 33,333$1,3540.8%00.4—
★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 33,333$1,3020.7%00.4—
★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe (Factory New)gloves · #eb4b4b1 in 33,333$1,2020.7%00.4—
★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 33,333$1,1500.6%20.4—
★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 25,000$1,0160.8%00.5—
★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny1 in 25,000$9530.7%00.5—
★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Minimal Wear)gloves · #eb4b4b1 in 25,000$9270.7%20.5—
★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 25,000$8650.6%00.5—
★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 20,000$7190.7%00.6—
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary1 in 16,667$6500.7%10.8—
★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Battle-Scarred)gloves · legendary1 in 16,667$6370.7%00.8—
★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary1 in 16,667$5740.6%00.8—
★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 14,286$5680.7%00.9—
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic1 in 14,286$5470.7%10.9—
★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary1 in 14,286$5100.7%00.9—
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal1 in 12,500$4920.7%11.00.99×
★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny1 in 12,500$4820.7%41.03.94×
★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary1 in 12,500$4770.7%01.00.00×
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal1 in 11,111$4360.7%11.10.88×
★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal1 in 11,111$4330.7%31.12.63×
★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · rare1 in 11,111$4260.7%11.10.88×
★ Driver Gloves | Garden (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary1 in 11,111$4230.7%31.12.63×
★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 11,111$4160.7%31.12.63×
★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 10,000$3880.7%01.30.00×
★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal1 in 10,000$3730.7%11.30.79×
★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Battle-Scarred)gloves · epic1 in 10,000$3580.7%11.30.79×
★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare1 in 9,091$3410.7%21.41.43×
★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary1 in 8,333$3030.7%31.51.97×
★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny1 in 7,692$2880.7%31.61.82×
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Field-Tested)gloves · rare1 in 7,692$2830.7%41.62.43×
★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Minimal Wear)gloves · rare1 in 7,692$2790.7%41.62.43×
★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested)gloves · gold1 in 7,692$2790.7%01.60.00×
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal1 in 6,667$2550.7%21.91.05×
★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal1 in 6,667$2550.7%21.91.05×
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 6,667$2450.7%11.90.53×
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 6,667$2430.7%11.90.53×
★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary1 in 6,667$2410.7%31.91.58×
★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare1 in 5,882$2170.7%12.20.46×
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Battle-Scarred)gloves · #eb4b4b1 in 5,882$2130.7%62.22.78×
★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal1 in 4,000$2000.9%63.21.89×
★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell (Field-Tested)gloves · rare1 in 4,000$1980.9%63.21.89×
★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 4,000$1970.9%33.20.95×
★ Driver Gloves | Garden (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal1 in 3,846$1951.0%63.31.82×
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 3,846$1920.9%03.30.00×
★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · gold1 in 3,846$1920.9%93.32.73×
★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · epic1 in 3,846$1890.9%53.31.52×
★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal1 in 3,704$1870.9%53.41.46×
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 3,571$1800.9%53.61.41×
★ Driver Gloves | Garden (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare1 in 3,448$1730.9%63.71.63×
★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic1 in 3,448$1720.9%93.72.45×
★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 3,448$1710.9%53.71.36×
★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 3,030$1520.9%34.20.72×
★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold1 in 2,857$1440.9%14.40.23×
★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill (Well-Worn)gloves · rare1 in 2,778$1380.9%34.60.66×
★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal1 in 2,703$1360.9%44.70.85×
★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,703$1360.9%64.71.28×
★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,703$1340.9%34.70.64×
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare1 in 2,564$1290.9%74.91.41×
★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,326$1170.9%55.50.92×
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 2,273$1140.9%55.60.90×
★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists (Field-Tested)gloves · epic1 in 2,222$1120.9%75.71.23×
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 2,222$1110.9%25.70.35×
★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,222$1100.9%105.71.75×
★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare1 in 2,128$1060.9%76.01.17×
★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe (Field-Tested)gloves · rare1 in 1,961$97.440.9%56.50.77×
★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,818$90.110.9%107.01.43×
★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha (Well-Worn)gloves · rare1 in 1,754$87.880.9%97.21.24×
★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,667$82.650.9%77.60.92×
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 1,149$57.440.9%1311.01.18×
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 1,136$57.120.9%911.20.81×
AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 1,099$54.990.9%911.50.78×
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 1,075$53.760.9%1011.80.85×
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 1,053$52.460.9%912.10.75×
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 855$42.850.9%1214.80.81×
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 855$42.580.9%1214.80.81×
AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 546$27.290.9%2223.20.95×
P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 498$24.880.9%2525.50.98×
P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 488$24.380.9%2326.00.88×
AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 294$14.720.9%4143.10.95×
P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 58$11.343.7%216219.20.99×
P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 57$11.193.7%229222.31.03×
AK-47 | Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 56$11.013.7%221225.80.98×
AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 48$9.373.7%276265.41.04×
M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 33$6.503.7%393382.51.03×
P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 1,493$5.910.1%88.50.94×
P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 1,493$5.860.1%58.50.59×
P250 | Kintsugi (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 1,429$5.670.1%78.90.79×
P90 | Deathgaze (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 1,429$5.630.1%68.90.68×
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommon1 in 1,351$5.310.1%139.41.38×
P90 | Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 1,111$4.410.1%1211.41.05×
P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 1,099$4.350.1%1811.51.56×
MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)weapon · 31 in 1,031$4.050.1%1012.30.81×
Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 1,020$4.030.1%812.40.64×
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 962$3.810.1%913.20.68×
M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 602$2.380.1%2521.11.19×
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 500$1.970.1%2525.40.99×
MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 439$1.730.1%2228.90.76×
Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 426$1.680.1%3329.81.11×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 424$1.670.1%2729.90.90×
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 410$1.620.1%3731.01.20×
M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 289$1.140.1%4443.91.00×
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 253$1.000.1%3350.10.66×
Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 226$0.890.1%5756.21.01×
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 223$0.880.1%4357.00.75×
MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 220$0.870.1%6057.61.04×
M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 216$0.850.1%4958.90.83×
M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 216$0.850.1%7058.91.19×
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 210$0.830.1%7660.41.26×
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 205$0.810.1%6461.81.04×
MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 203$0.800.1%7562.51.20×
Galil AR | Galigator (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 203$0.800.1%4762.50.75×
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 203$0.800.1%5562.50.88×
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 200$0.790.1%6363.40.99×
PP-Bizon | RMX (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 200$0.790.1%7463.41.17×
M4A1-S | Electrum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 198$0.780.1%7664.21.18×
UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 175$0.690.1%6572.60.90×
M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 167$0.660.1%6275.90.82×
Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 165$0.650.1%7877.01.01×
MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 159$0.630.1%8279.51.03×
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 159$0.630.1%10179.51.27×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 155$0.610.1%9882.11.19×
Galil AR | Galigator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 147$0.580.1%8386.40.96×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 81$0.340.1%168156.31.07×
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 69$0.290.1%202183.11.10×
UMP-45 | Fragment (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 67$0.280.1%184189.70.97×
PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 67$0.280.1%189189.71.00×
M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 62$0.260.1%191204.30.94×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare1 in 60$0.250.1%223212.41.05×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 60$0.250.1%204212.40.96×
Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 55$0.230.1%250230.91.08×
M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 55$0.230.1%228230.90.99×
UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 53$0.220.1%218241.30.90×
M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 43$0.180.1%250295.00.85×
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 41$0.170.1%325312.41.04×
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 41$0.170.1%299312.40.96×
M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 36$0.150.1%353354.01.00×
PP-Bizon | RMX (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 33$0.140.1%395379.21.04×
M249 | Bock Blocks (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 33$0.140.1%383379.21.01×
UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 33$0.140.1%389379.21.03×
PP-Bizon | RMX (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 33$0.140.1%356379.20.94×
M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 31$0.130.1%399408.40.98×
Sawed-Off | Fusion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 26$0.110.1%520482.71.08×
PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 26$0.110.1%487482.71.01×
Sawed-Off | Fusion (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 26$0.110.1%480482.70.99×
Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 26$0.110.1%473482.70.98×
M4A4 | Zubastick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 26$0.110.1%439482.70.91×
UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 23$0.100.1%564549.61.03×
M249 | Bock Blocks (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 24$0.100.1%515531.00.97×
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 24$0.100.1%545531.01.03×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635324, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$6.0088.89%164
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 0.1%legendary 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.1%sunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.4%epic 0.1%Immortal 0.2%rare 0.7%gold 0.1%Ancient 0.1%red 0.3%Legendary 0.4%pink 8.5%Mythical 3.3%uncommon 0.2%violet 4.4%#8847ff 1.5%Rare 1.9%restricted 2.3%blue 17.6%milspec 15.7%#4b69ff 42.0%best hit $6,077 (1,013x)