ENTRY MOUZ

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
89.03%
EV $4.45 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.41%
7,084 openings, odds method
Variance
10.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
97.20%±19.721,010 openings
7 days
90.94%±8.155,910 openings
30 days
89.41%±7.457,084 openings
since tracking started
89.41%±7.457,084 openings
77.0%97.3%117.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,01097.20%±19.7+0.8σodds
7d5,91090.94%±8.15+0.5σodds
30d7,08489.41%±7.45+0.1σodds
All7,08489.41%±7.45+0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,108 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 2,500$3923.5%52.81.76×
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 2,222$3523.6%43.21.25×
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 855$1343.5%58.30.60×
M4A4 | The Coalition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 833$1303.5%68.50.70×
XM1014 | Frost Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 714$1123.5%1010.01.00×
USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 694$1093.5%1310.21.27×
Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 513$80.443.5%1413.91.01×
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 215$43.194.5%3133.10.94×
MAC-10 | Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 207$41.594.5%4334.31.25×
Glock-18 | Weasel (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 206$41.434.5%3434.50.99×
P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 175$35.054.5%3740.70.91×
XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 168$33.864.5%4142.20.97×
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 161$32.424.5%4444.11.00×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 124$24.904.5%5857.41.01×
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 112$22.574.5%5463.30.85×
Dual Berettas | Pyre (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 80$16.144.5%8588.50.96×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 78$15.704.5%8691.00.95×
M4A4 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 74$9.142.8%7595.60.78×
MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 60$7.402.8%113118.10.96×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 58$7.152.8%113122.20.92×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 50$6.202.8%131140.90.93×
AUG | Radiation Hazard (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 49$6.052.8%141144.40.98×
M249 | Humidor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 48$5.862.8%143149.10.96×
AUG | Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 46$5.712.8%161153.01.05×
Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 42$5.162.8%172169.31.02×
CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 41$5.022.8%177174.01.02×
MAC-10 | Aloha (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 41$5.012.8%179174.41.03×
P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$0.530.4%232218.51.06×
Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 19$0.310.4%376373.41.01×
M4A4 | Choppa (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 16$0.260.4%438445.20.98×
MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Factory New)weapon · common1 in 14$0.230.4%479503.20.95×
MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 12$0.190.4%615609.21.01×
M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 12$0.190.4%621609.21.02×
P250 | Sedimentary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d932.7%$0.050.4%2,3722322.51.02×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/1635425, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$5.0089.03%34
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.2%mil spec 7.3%classified 2.7%rare 1.3%pink 2.1%violet 1.1%extraordinary 0.6%#8847ff 6.1%#87c7ff 9.8%Mythical 1.3%industrial 3.4%restricted 1.7%#4b69ff 2.5%blue 13.8%Rare 6.3%common 7.1%#5e98d9 32.7%best hit $392 (78.43x)