LURKER MOUZ
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$14.00
Advertised RTP
89.00%
EV $12.46 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.02%
2,439 openings, odds method
Variance
6.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,439 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635428, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $14.00 | 89.00% | 33 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%Classified 0.1%sunny 0.1%covert 0.7%red 0.3%restricted 7.7%covert knife 0.4%extraordinary 0.4%gold 0.5%classified 9.5%Ancient 1.3%pink 5.0%#d32ce6 2.0%#4b69ff 15.8%mil spec 2.2%industrial 2.7%milspec 3.8%blue 20.8%#87c7ff 26.6%best hit —