Burning Ember
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$8.00
Advertised RTP
88.82%
EV $7.11 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.65%
2,602 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,606 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635583, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $8.00 | 88.82% | 32 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 9.5%covert 0.9%classified 10.0%Ancient 0.1%extraordinary 0.3%restricted 1.0%rare 0.1%#ffd700 0.4%gold 0.4%industrial 1.1%mil spec 6.8%Mythical 5.9%violet 2.0%pink 2.2%#d32ee6 2.5%Industrial Grade 2.7%#8847ff 4.3%#4b69ff 19.9%#5e98d9 30.0%best hit —