Toxic Clown
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1.50
Advertised RTP
88.93%
EV $1.33 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.49%
51.7K openings, odds method
Variance
9.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/1635601, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.50 | 88.93% | 31 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 6.2%3 2.7%sunny 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 4.0%rare 0.0%industrial 0.3%mil spec 7.1%milspec 0.2%pink 0.8%Mythical 0.9%#87c7ff 3.2%#4b69ff 9.8%#8847ff 4.9%violet 9.2%#5e98d9 50.6%best hit $154 (102.6x)