HighFive
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
88.87%
EV $4.44 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.45%
6,229 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,237 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/166, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $5.00 | 88.87% | 42 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.00 | 88.97% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 10.8%covert 0.3%classified 3.2%Legendary 0.6%#8847ff 2.8%violet 0.5%extraordinary 0.1%industrial 0.1%mil spec 0.7%Covert 0.1%#4b69ff 76.5%Mil Spec Grade 0.3%pink 3.1%#d32ee6 0.4%blue 0.6%best hit $411 (82.17x)