Melody
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$15.00
Advertised RTP
88.87%
EV $13.33 from 39 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.78%
1,977 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.87% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (71.28% – 88.28%, 1,977 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,982 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/167, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $15.00 | 88.87% | 39 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.9%#ffd700 0.9%restricted 10.7%red 0.1%#4b69ff 69.5%Mythical 0.4%classified 4.0%mil spec 0.9%extraordinary 0.7%#d32ce6 5.5%violet 6.4%best hit —