Dicey
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$74.90
Advertised RTP
86.67%
EV $64.92 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.92%
287 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 287 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/179, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.67%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $74.90 | 86.67% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 2.5%covert 25.0%classified 20.0%#d32ee6 12.5%red 5.0%#4b69ff 5.0%#ffd700 2.5%pink 7.5%restricted 10.0%milspec 2.5%Rare 2.5%blue 2.5%mil spec 2.5%best hit —