Catch

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$124.40

Advertised RTP

86.65%

EV $107.79 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.77%

195 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

33 openings · below min

7 days

78.19%±13.17172 openings

30 days

79.77%±12.37195 openings

since tracking started

79.77%±12.37195 openings

60.5%91.3%122.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	33	91.23%±30.1	—	odds
7d	172	78.19%±13.2	−1.3σ	odds
30d	195	79.77%±12.4	−1.1σ	odds
All	195	79.77%±12.4	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 195 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$523	19.4%	3	7.8	0.38×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$281	10.4%	9	7.8	1.15×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$235	8.7%	11	7.8	1.41×
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$200	7.4%	8	7.8	1.03×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$175	6.5%	8	7.8	1.03×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$137	5.1%	1	7.8	0.13×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$126	4.7%	7	7.8	0.90×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$112	4.2%	9	7.8	1.15×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$99.00	3.7%	8	7.8	1.03×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$89.63	3.3%	8	7.8	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$89.35	3.3%	5	7.8	0.64×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$89.32	3.3%	15	7.8	1.92×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$75.43	2.8%	8	7.8	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$75.42	2.8%	13	7.8	1.67×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$72.14	2.7%	8	7.8	1.03×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$69.72	2.6%	2	7.8	0.26×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$63.92	2.4%	7	7.8	0.90×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$53.37	2.0%	8	7.8	1.03×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$41.43	1.5%	10	7.8	1.28×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$26.16	1.0%	10	7.8	1.28×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 25	$24.34	0.9%	6	7.8	0.77×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$23.25	0.9%	11	7.8	1.41×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$6.93	0.3%	7	7.8	0.90×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$4.15	0.2%	8	7.8	1.03×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.89	0.1%	5	7.8	0.64×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/198, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$124$5234.20x13h

CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$124$5234.20x20h

CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedaimstarooo$124$5234.20x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$124$1120.90x1h

Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$124$2812.26x1h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classifiedmrouZ$124$89.630.72x1h

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$124$1120.90x4h

AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialtwitch.tv/kosior_777$124$6.930.06x4h

Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified$124$23.250.19x13h

Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedCzapa 1 lvl Faceit$124$63.920.51x13h

Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified$124$23.250.19x13h

AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6$124$24.340.20x13h

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classifiedKURI$124$26.160.21x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.65%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$124	86.65%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 12.0%classified 40.0%covert 36.0%industrial 8.0%#d32ce6 4.0%best hit $523 (4.20x)