On thin ice
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$44.60
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $38.58 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.10%
324 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 330 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/200, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $44.60 | 86.50% | 50 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 14.0%#eb4b4b 2.0%#8847ff 8.0%restricted 18.0%classified 22.0%mil spec 6.0%Restricted 4.0%pink 4.0%violet 2.0%industrial 4.0%#d32ee6 2.0%#4b69ff 4.0%consumer 2.0%#777777 2.0%Mythical 2.0%Rare 2.0%#87c7ff 2.0%best hit —