Angel

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$40.50
Advertised RTP
88.86%
EV $35.99 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.26%
1,800 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
108.54%±19.79189 openings
7 days
93.97%±6.771,618 openings
30 days
93.26%±6.411,800 openings
since tracking started
93.26%±6.411,800 openings
86.0%107.5%129.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h189108.54%±19.8+1.9σodds
7d1,61893.97%±6.77+1.5σodds
30d1,80093.26%±6.41+1.3σodds
All1,80093.26%±6.41+1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,818 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,961$1,1951.7%30.9—
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,053$6451.7%31.71.74×
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 917$5621.7%42.02.02×
M4A4 | The Coalition (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 758$4631.7%62.42.50×
Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 571$3501.7%33.20.94×
M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 508$3111.7%43.61.12×
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 408$2501.7%44.50.90×
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 407$2481.7%34.50.67×
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 347$2131.7%85.21.53×
AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 345$2111.7%15.30.19×
AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 264$1611.7%26.90.29×
M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 261$1601.7%67.00.86×
M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 247$1511.7%77.40.95×
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 217$1331.7%118.41.32×
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 215$1311.7%48.50.47×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 181$1111.7%610.10.60×
M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 155$94.681.7%811.70.68×
AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 146$89.451.7%1412.41.13×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 12$63.3314.2%152147.11.03×
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 11$54.1614.2%153172.00.89×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert11.5%$44.6714.2%231208.61.11×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient12.8%$40.0214.2%212232.80.91×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 175$38.890.6%1010.40.96×
AWP | POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted1 in 153$33.940.6%711.90.59×
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 149$33.180.6%1312.21.07×
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 123$27.240.6%1814.81.21×
AUG | Fleet Flock (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 110$24.560.6%1516.50.91×
MAG-7 | Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 97$21.640.6%1618.70.86×
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 94$20.930.6%2619.31.35×
AUG | Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 70$15.480.6%2726.11.03×
CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 68$15.150.6%3326.71.24×
AUG | Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 68$15.060.6%3126.81.16×
MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 59$13.210.6%2330.60.75×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 54$11.910.6%3333.90.97×
Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 49$10.880.6%3837.11.02×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 44$9.670.6%4141.80.98×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 41$9.010.6%4344.80.96×
AWP | POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 37$8.180.6%5749.41.15×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 26$5.860.6%7668.91.10×
AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 22$4.510.6%8882.41.07×
AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 15$2.560.5%119118.41.01×
CZ75-Auto | Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 15$2.560.5%107118.40.90×
CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue1 in 13$2.120.5%152142.91.06×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/208, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.86%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC$40.5088.86%43
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.1%#eb4b4b 0.1%restricted 14.6%classified 13.6%Ancient 21.2%red 1.4%Legendary 6.5%Restricted 0.7%industrial 1.0%#d32ee6 2.5%#87c7ff 8.2%Mythical 2.0%violet 5.2%light blue 7.9%best hit $1,195 (29.51x)