Pain
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$9.00
Advertised RTP
88.87%
EV $8.00 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.48%
4,474 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,478 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/271, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.00 | 88.87% | 32 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.4%restricted 0.6%mil spec 0.7%extraordinary 0.2%Ancient 0.3%classified 8.8%Mil Spec Grade 0.4%#8847ff 0.5%Classified 4.8%Legendary 10.5%pink 0.8%#4b69ff 3.5%#d32ee6 4.7%Uncommon 62.9%best hit —