M4A4
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
88.92%
EV $4.45 from 39 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.14%
12.9K openings, odds method
Variance
19.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/32, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $5.00 | 88.92% | 39 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.00 | 88.92% | 39 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%classified 8.6%restricted 1.6%covert 1.1%mil spec 10.2%red 0.0%Rare 5.7%violet 1.7%Uncommon 60.3%industrial 7.9%milspec 2.0%Mythical 0.9%best hit $613 (122.5x)