P250
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$2.50
Advertised RTP
88.88%
EV $2.22 from 66 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.62%
25.7K openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/334, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $2.50 | 88.88% | 66 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.50 | 88.86% | 66 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 1.8%mil spec 0.0%covert 0.0%restricted 7.4%classified 6.2%Mythical 0.8%#8847ff 9.6%#4b69ff 19.1%blue 0.1%#d32ee6 0.3%Mil Spec Grade 0.7%#d32ce6 0.3%industrial 2.5%milspec 0.8%#87c7ff 0.9%violet 0.6%Legendary 0.5%Rare 0.6%consumer 47.9%best hit $304 (121.8x)