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A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$153.40

Advertised RTP

86.81%

EV $133.17 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.87%

132 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

97 openings · below min

30 days

86.87%±19.99132 openings

since tracking started

86.87%±19.99132 openings

-0.5%77.3%155.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	73.04%±81.2	—	odds
7d	97	78.95%±23.3	—	odds
30d	132	86.87%±20.0	+0.0σ	odds
All	132	86.87%±20.0	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 132 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$628	23.6%	7	6.6	1.06×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$516	19.4%	5	6.6	0.76×
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$383	14.4%	9	6.6	1.36×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$313	11.8%	7	6.6	1.06×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$231	8.7%	6	6.6	0.91×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$112	4.2%	2	6.6	0.30×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$101	3.8%	12	6.6	1.82×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$84.46	3.2%	4	6.6	0.61×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$65.12	2.4%	7	6.6	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$51.33	1.9%	3	6.6	0.45×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$46.78	1.8%	10	6.6	1.52×
P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$34.63	1.3%	4	6.6	0.61×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$28.48	1.1%	2	6.6	0.30×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 20	$24.34	0.9%	8	6.6	1.21×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$11.53	0.4%	8	6.6	1.21×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 20	$10.68	0.4%	7	6.6	1.06×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$9.97	0.4%	9	6.6	1.36×
P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$5.53	0.2%	8	6.6	1.21×
XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$3.89	0.1%	8	6.6	1.21×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$2.51	0.1%	6	6.6	0.91×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/384, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.