Dream
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$12.00
Advertised RTP
89.03%
EV $10.68 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.96%
3,925 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,971 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/392, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.03%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $12.00 | 89.03% | 26 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 7.8%#d32ee6 2.1%restricted 0.2%covert 2.1%red 1.4%Classified 1.5%#d32ce6 3.3%#eb4b4b 3.3%#8847ff 8.1%blue 4.5%#777777 65.7%best hit $822 (68.54x)