Double down
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$7.00
Advertised RTP
88.95%
EV $6.23 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.11%
6,545 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,547 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/393, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.00 | 88.95% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%restricted 5.3%#eb4b4b 0.4%industrial 0.4%classified 1.6%mil spec 4.2%#d32ce6 2.2%Classified 1.1%Uncommon 2.8%#d32ee6 4.6%consumer 77.2%best hit —