AWP
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
88.93%
EV $4.45 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.63%
21K openings, odds method
Variance
35.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/44, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.00 | 88.93% | 34 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%classified 4.9%industrial 50.1%restricted 28.0%red 0.2%Restricted 0.3%Legendary 1.0%Classified 0.7%#8847ff 14.3%best hit $568 (113.6x)