Knife

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$160.00

Advertised RTP

88.70%

EV $141.92 from 88 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.75%

139 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

98 openings · below min

30 days

88.75%±11.59139 openings

since tracking started

88.75%±11.59139 openings

25.5%77.8%130.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	77.71%±51.6	—	odds
7d	98	92.48%±13.8	—	odds
30d	139	88.75%±11.6	+0.0σ	odds
All	139	88.75%±11.6	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values88 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 139 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 257	$1,058	2.9%	1	0.5	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 142	$653	3.2%	0	1.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 89	$397	3.1%	4	1.6	2.57×
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 96	$392	2.9%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 91	$387	3.0%	2	1.5	1.31×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 84	$357	3.0%	2	1.6	1.21×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 75	$326	3.1%	1	1.9	0.54×
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 61	$291	3.3%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 82	$285	2.5%	5	1.7	2.95×
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 70	$275	2.8%	2	2.0	1.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 69	$245	2.5%	0	2.0	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 69	$229	2.3%	3	2.0	1.49×
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 65	$225	2.4%	3	2.1	1.41×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 61	$216	2.5%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 56	$207	2.6%	2	2.5	0.80×
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 52	$203	2.8%	3	2.7	1.12×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 65	$191	2.1%	1	2.2	0.46×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 51	$190	2.6%	2	2.7	0.74×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 50	$182	2.6%	5	2.8	1.81×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 46	$175	2.7%	1	3.0	0.33×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 46	$170	2.6%	4	3.0	1.33×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 185	$165	0.6%	0	0.8	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 177	$151	0.6%	1	0.8	—
★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 165	$150	0.6%	1	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 156	$148	0.7%	2	0.9	—
★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 155	$148	0.7%	3	0.9	—
★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 140	$146	0.7%	2	1.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 160	$145	0.6%	0	0.9	—
★ Flip Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 158	$144	0.6%	0	0.9	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 156	$141	0.6%	0	0.9	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 154	$140	0.6%	1	0.9	—
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 141	$138	0.7%	0	1.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 135	$137	0.7%	1	1.0	0.97×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 145	$136	0.7%	0	1.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 135	$135	0.7%	1	1.0	0.97×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 157	$132	0.6%	0	0.9	—
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 143	$131	0.6%	1	1.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 141	$130	0.6%	0	1.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 134	$127	0.7%	1	1.0	0.97×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 151	$119	0.6%	1	0.9	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 123	$118	0.7%	2	1.1	1.77×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 138	$116	0.6%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 170	$115	0.5%	0	0.8	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 173	$113	0.5%	1	0.8	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 172	$112	0.5%	1	0.8	—
★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 174	$110	0.4%	0	0.8	—
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 128	$108	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 140	$104	0.5%	1	1.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 151	$98.54	0.5%	0	0.9	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 160	$98.00	0.4%	2	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 141	$96.71	0.5%	0	1.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 150	$96.18	0.5%	0	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 148	$95.47	0.5%	0	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 155	$95.02	0.4%	2	0.9	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 147	$92.01	0.4%	0	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 135	$91.07	0.5%	2	1.0	1.95×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 134	$89.40	0.5%	1	1.0	0.97×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 143	$87.81	0.4%	0	1.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 135	$84.69	0.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 71	$81.98	0.8%	3	2.0	1.53×
★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 71	$79.10	0.8%	1	2.0	0.51×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 71	$79.02	0.8%	3	2.0	1.53×
★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 67	$78.02	0.8%	0	2.1	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 63	$77.38	0.9%	2	2.2	0.91×
★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 62	$75.68	0.9%	5	2.2	2.24×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 154	$75.45	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 62	$74.91	0.9%	6	2.3	2.65×
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 61	$74.84	0.9%	3	2.3	1.32×
★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 64	$74.71	0.8%	4	2.2	1.84×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 148	$72.69	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 142	$71.05	0.4%	2	1.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 62	$70.89	0.8%	2	2.2	0.90×
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 61	$70.86	0.8%	3	2.3	1.31×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 62	$70.29	0.8%	3	2.3	1.33×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 71	$69.26	0.7%	0	2.0	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 64	$69.05	0.8%	3	2.2	1.38×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 60	$68.37	0.8%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 61	$67.80	0.8%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 133	$66.48	0.4%	2	1.0	1.92×
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 69	$65.82	0.7%	3	2.0	1.49×
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 139	$65.06	0.3%	1	1.0	1.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 65	$63.64	0.7%	2	2.1	0.93×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 63	$61.92	0.7%	1	2.2	0.46×
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 56	$60.95	0.8%	2	2.5	0.81×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 61	$57.66	0.7%	2	2.3	0.87×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 51	$56.95	0.8%	5	2.7	1.82×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 51	$54.89	0.8%	2	2.7	0.74×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 29	$54.72	1.3%	7	4.8	1.47×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/48, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.