Neex
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$40.00
Advertised RTP
88.92%
EV $35.57 from 37 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.95%
803 openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 805 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/630127, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $40.00 | 88.92% | 37 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $40.00 | 89.05% | 37 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 11.7%classified 4.5%covert knife 0.2%#d32ee6 1.6%#ffd700 1.3%Immortal 1.2%Ancient 0.7%red 1.3%Restricted 0.8%restricted 12.0%violet 6.4%blue 11.4%Rare 12.9%#8847ff 34.1%best hit $1,126 (28.15x)