Robo

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$15.00
Advertised RTP
86.73%
EV $13.01 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.34%
3,080 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
67.43%±15.80316 openings
7 days
81.30%±5.562,640 openings
30 days
82.34%±5.173,080 openings
since tracking started
82.34%±5.173,080 openings
51.0%69.5%88.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h31667.43%±15.8−2.4σodds
7d2,64081.30%±5.56−1.9σodds
30d3,08082.34%±5.17−1.7σodds
All3,08082.34%±5.17−1.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,089 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,538$3251.6%12.00.50×
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 971$2061.6%03.20.00×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 926$1961.6%23.30.60×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 699$1491.6%54.41.13×
AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 535$1261.8%05.80.00×
Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 532$1251.8%75.81.21×
MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 515$1211.8%36.00.50×
★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 513$1211.8%96.01.49×
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 488$1151.8%76.31.11×
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 469$1101.8%66.60.91×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 446$1051.8%46.90.58×
★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 389$91.521.8%67.90.76×
M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 337$79.281.8%59.20.54×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 334$78.601.8%99.20.97×
AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 314$74.011.8%189.81.83×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 245$57.641.8%1612.61.27×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 215$50.501.8%1314.40.90×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 208$49.041.8%1114.80.74×
P250 | Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 185$43.531.8%616.70.36×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 181$42.571.8%1417.10.82×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 169$39.821.8%1418.30.77×
CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 46$28.284.7%4767.40.70×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 36$21.924.7%9386.91.07×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 35$21.664.7%9987.91.13×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 33$20.504.7%8092.90.86×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 31$19.264.7%10998.91.10×
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 24$15.034.7%117126.70.92×
AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 10$11.098.5%252306.40.82×
G3SG1 | Flux (Well-Worn)weapon · classified14.5%$7.618.5%450446.51.01×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary23.2%$4.758.5%738715.41.03×
AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified28.3%$4.108.9%948873.51.09×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/646679, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.73%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
6 Nov, 19:45 UTC$15.0086.73%31
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$15.0086.84%31
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.2%classified 56.9%restricted 0.2%mil spec 2.4%#eb4b4b 0.2%extraordinary 0.2%pink 2.8%Legendary 33.1%best hit —