Excalibur
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$700.00
Advertised RTP
85.10%
EV $595.68 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.03%
59 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 59 openings and 16.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 59 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/647192, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.10%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $700 | 85.10% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 1.5%classified 7.9%covert 39.7%#ffd700 2.9%restricted 8.5%sunny 8.4%high 2.7%gold 3.0%rare 3.0%extraordinary 5.9%Immortal 16.4%best hit $1,777 (2.54x)