RAPA NUI
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$150.00
Advertised RTP
88.97%
EV $133.46 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.52%
943 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 943 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/761293, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $150 | 88.97% | 42 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $150 | 88.95% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.4%remarkable 0.1%covert knife 0.2%restricted 15.9%sunny 0.3%extraordinary 7.9%gold 0.3%classified 19.0%#d32ee6 17.4%Ancient 3.4%mil spec 6.5%#8847ff 13.6%best hit $2,027 (13.52x)