Howl
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$430.00
Advertised RTP
86.66%
EV $372.62 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
66.90%
78 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 78 openings and 8.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/815270, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.66%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $430 | 86.66% | 26 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.5%covert 49.4%restricted 2.1%extraordinary 4.4%sunny 2.0%classified 2.9%#ffd700 3.4%pink 5.7%covert knife 8.1%Ancient 21.6%best hit $1,876 (4.36x)