Lore
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1,030.00
Advertised RTP
86.48%
EV $890.72 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.61%
348 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 348 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/815305, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1,030 | 86.48% | 31 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 4.1%covert 61.9%extraordinary 11.2%epic 2.3%classified 13.2%restricted 7.4%best hit $10.4K (10.10x)