HYPER
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$10.00
Advertised RTP
88.81%
EV $8.88 from 39 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.70%
1,958 openings, odds method
Variance
9.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.81% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (89.23% – 116.17%, 1,958 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,958 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/853201, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.81%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.81% | 39 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%Covert 0.1%covert 3.0%classified 4.5%industrial 1.1%covert knife 0.3%restricted 4.3%mil spec 51.5%blue 3.1%#d32ee6 1.6%light blue 2.2%pink 2.5%#4b69ff 10.8%#8847ff 15.1%best hit $1,250 (125.0x)